Privately owned coal-fired power stations in Queensland would continue to operate beyond the 2035 deadline set by the Palaszczuk government for the end of coal power, according to modelling commissioned by the state government.
While Ms Palaszczuk is planning to close a fleet of five state-owned facilities by 2035, a handful of private coal stations will continue operating for up to an extra three years to help keep the lights on under the EY modelling.
Gladstone’s coal-fired power station is a crucial part of the state’s energy grid. Peter Davis
The modelling – undertaken ahead of the $62 billion Queensland Energy Plan released in September – also claims electricity prices will be cheaper under the more aggressive exit of coal.
There are currently eight coal-fired power stations in Queensland. Five of them (Callide B, Kogan Creek, Stanwell, Tarong, Tarong North) are owned by the state government, two (Gladstone, Millmerran) are owned by the private sector and one (Callide C) is a joint venture.
Ms Palaszczuk said the state-owned coal-fired power stations would be no longer needed by 2035 when 22 gigawatts of new clean energy projects, including wind, solar, batteries and pumped hydro, would take the state to 80 per cent renewables.
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But the coal fleet would be on stand-by until two government-backed schemes were operational, she said.
The EY modelling assumed the privately owned coal generators would stay in the grid until 2037-38 – with none remaining online by 2039-40 – provided the grid was ready.
“This is on the basis that the energy system at this time can support a zero-coal system,” the modelling said.
“This is also an assumed outcome as provided by the department and does not represent decisions made by a private company about their assets.”
The 1680-megawatt Gladstone Power Station, a joint venture partly owned by Rio Tinto, is Queensland’s largest coal-fired power station and provides crucial supply to the Boyne Smelter.
Intergen’s 850-megawatt Millmerran power station, was only commissioned in 2002, and was not scheduled to close until 2051.
But the EY modelling – which has been published on a Queensland government website – assumed coal-fired power would become less economically viable as more solar, wind and batteries entered the grid.
It compared the introduction of the $62 billion energy plan and its ambitious targets with a more “unco-ordinated outlook” which would not have early investments in the energy transformation by the state government.
Queensland’s carbon emissions would fall most dramatically when coal-fired power units started to exit the grid from 2026-27.
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said the state would turn away from coal by 2035 under her government’s new energy and jobs plan. AAP
The so-called “super grid” will deliver about 1500 kilometres of transmission lines from Brisbane up to North Queensland and west to Hughenden.
The 500-kilovolt transmission lines will be the largest constructed in Queensland and help support 22 gigawatts of new wind and solar power in renewable energy zones across the state.
But interestingly the EY modelling does not include the much-touted $1.5 billion CopperString project to build a privately owned 1100-kilometre transmission line from Townsville to Mount Isa.
The CopperString project has received both state and federal government funding.
“The department has selected not to include the proposed CopperString transmission project in the modelling, primarily due to the complexity it would add as it could entail adding a new region to the National Electricity Market,” the modelling said.
The EY modelling predicted annual retail electricity bills for households would be up to $11 lower in 2030 and up to $77 lower on average from 2025 to 2040.
The modelling claims household incomes would be boosted through broader economic activity associated with the energy plan.
The promise of cheaper power prices under more renewable energy has already caught out the Albanese government, which claimed power bills would be $275 less by 2025 under Labor’s plans to introduce tougher emission reduction targets.
But the war in Ukraine and soaring fossil fuel prices has scuppered federal Labor’s promise, with electricity bills predicted to increase by 56 per cent over the next two years.
The EY modelling predicted Queensland’s energy plan could support 28,500 direct jobs building and operating the new clean energy assets – the bulk of which would be in the regions – with a further 35,000 indirect jobs in service industries.
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